Aixtron purpose of this thread

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eröffnet am: 10.01.20 16:19 von: baggo-mh Anzahl Beiträge: 1155
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1201 Postings, 4279 Tage baggo-mhAixtron purpose of this thread

 
  
    
14
10.01.20 16:19

For the time being this forum is closed to keep users that do not contribute essential news around the stock, the market opportunity or messages related to it out.

Please be friendly to eachother and keep political discussions out.

Thank you
 laugthingcool baggo-mh

 
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1129 Postings ausgeblendet.

465 Postings, 5406 Tage fel216Wolfspeed Capital markets day

 
  
    
1
17.11.21 22:21
Hi all,

Wolfspeed (Cree renamed into Wolfspeed) hosted they capital markets day today, presentation recording is available here (unfortunately the pdf is not). But I assume bullish on SIC (and GAN?). WOuld be interesting to review their view on the demand picture.

https://www.wolfspeed.com/company/news-events/events/investor-day-2021

Regards,
Fel  

892 Postings, 1640 Tage CWL1Listen to Guido

 
  
    
1
18.11.21 19:20
There are confirmation on Q4 order, more color on Q4 EBIT, and positive comments about 2022.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/...nancial-results/id1550331381  

892 Postings, 1640 Tage CWL1GaN EV

 
  
    
1
18.11.21 22:31

5129 Postings, 3074 Tage dlg.CWL1

 
  
    
19.11.21 08:59
Many thanks for the podcast link! I am still puzzled when I hear Guido?s message in the podcast ?we reported an order intake of 114 million in Q3 and see no reason why this should be lower going forward? taking into account the Q4 guidance of EUR 63 to 103m?this is so ridiculous, but I refrain from any further comments on this.  

5129 Postings, 3074 Tage dlg.fel

 
  
    
19.11.21 10:35
Thanks for the above link to Wolfspeed's investor day presentation...I listened to some parts of the presentations, but didn't notice any Aixtron specific breaking news such as "machinery capex to explode in next weeks" or the like. However, anybody who is interested in learning about the tremendous SiC opportunities, should consider listening to the webcast.  

892 Postings, 1640 Tage CWL1dlg

 
  
    
3
19.11.21 17:14
I think Guido said that the order inquiries remain strong and hinted that Q4 orders might be ~100m or even higher.  To qualify as orders strict criteria's like deposit, confirmed delivery date, etc. have to be satisfied, and Aixtron did not have the fully committed orders yet at the time of CC.  It is also possible that some customers were cooking on larger orders than Aixtron initially anticipated so they need more time to ink the deal.  That might lead to delay on commitment of orders.

The possibility of large orders coming in at Q4 was hinted by Felix in the Q2 CC:

David O'Connor, Exane BNP

Great. Good afternoon and thanks for taking my question. Felix, I'm just curious,
given the broad-based strength you talk about across the business. I was just
wondering why the order intake for the second half is going to 25% below the first
half? Maybe can you give us some of the puts and takes around that? Or maybe
even if there was only pull-forwards in the order intake into the first half, given the
tight supply chain across the industry? And I have a follow-up, thanks.

Dr. Felix Grawert

Thank you, very good question. So as said, we typically have a good visibility for 6
months forward, so we have a pretty good visibility now for third quarter. For the
fourth quarter, visibility remains moderate. We base our updated guidance on these
data points, resulting in EUR 220 million to go in H2 or average H2-orders per quarter
of EUR 110 million which is little below the first half. This is based on the upper end
of our order guidance for 2021, i.e. EUR 480 million in combination with EUR 260
million having been received in H1 of this year.

The first half was characterized by some very large volume orders. There could be
similar order patterns in the second half as well. But this we do not know.

However, we would not expect, such volume orders to surprise us again as they did,
triggering the trading statement in June. Nevertheless, we cannot exclude that
either. And that's the reason why we have given the guidance today, following our
logic not to fuel expectations going too high given the current visibility. This
expresses our current view on the demand for the remainder of the year.
In summary this is what we currently see in terms of the volume which we believe
is a very good volume. And we are here on a long-term trend.
 

5129 Postings, 3074 Tage dlg.CWL

 
  
    
21.11.21 15:37
CWL, thanks for your feedback - the issue of qualification of orders is fully understood.

However, I stand by my criticism that a company shouldn?t provide a guidance range in the morning of 63-103m just to say a couple of hours later that the lower bound ?is out of reach? and that the real expectation (114-127m?) is sharply above the guided range. Considering the qualitative comments in the analyst call, a guidance range of, say, 90-110m would IMHO have been a better reflection of the reality and would have done less harm to the share price.

I think the company did a good job after 2Q by saying that 2Q included some one-off effects and the market should not expect order entry on the same level in 3Q and 4Q ? but they messed it up with the 4Q guidance for reasons I can only speculate about (see my previous postings).  Anyway, let's hope for a better communication next time.  

465 Postings, 5406 Tage fel216CWL, thanks alot! Nice opportunity today

 
  
    
23.11.21 10:23
Thanks alot for your detailed input again here, CWL. So we should expect very solid Q4 numbers (solid orders, strong sales / EBIT and balance sheet), potentially with a dividend announcement and good guidance (I expect 5-10% sales growth) with consensus currently expecting 4% sales and 7% EBIT growth (too low in my view). Together that gives me the conviction to add a little bit more to my already large position on days like today.

Regards!
Fel  

892 Postings, 1640 Tage CWL1Another GaN Power project Announced

 
  
    
3
23.11.21 14:57
"Fuzhou Daily" November 17 reported that the local district Changle landed four industry investment projects with a total investment of over 39.6 billion yuan, including a total investment of around 6 billion yuan gallium nitride project.

The investment is the same as Innoscience's Suzhou project, and the latter's phase one project was put into production in June this year, and it is expected to produce 6,000 8-inch silicon-based gallium nitride wafers per month in 2021 .

The Fuzhou gallium nitride project will also build an 8-inch gallium nitride plant, and plans to "become a leading domestic gallium nitride power device manufacturer." It is reported that the project will be divided into two building, the purchase of 20 sets to 30 sets of MOCVD equipment .  

465 Postings, 5406 Tage fel216Stock -10%, big seller in the market

 
  
    
1
24.11.21 10:58
Morning,

seems I was a bit too early yesterday.. the stock is -10% on no big news in my view. But on big volume (yesterday and today), so there seems to be a big seller in the market. A bit stupid to throw so much volume on the market and drown the stock.. well.

I think this is not fundamentally driven and most likely some profit taking ahead of year end and following the strong share price performance YTD.

Berenberg issued an update today, cutting their estimates somewhat and target price from 29 to 26.. but I doubt that this really triggered it.

So lets be patient and wait for strong Q4 and solid 2022 guidance (my opinion has not changed, obviously).

Regards!
Fel  

5129 Postings, 3074 Tage dlg.Share price

 
  
    
24.11.21 11:27
At least there is some benefit for the management as we are in the fixing period of their share awards.

I wouldn?t want to read too much into today?s share price plunge as basically all well running blue chip tech stocks have been hit the last few days. However, from my point of view, the management has strongly contributed to it with their latest quarterly communication. If order entry pattern is 2Q: 139m, 3Q: 114m and 4Qe: 82m (middle of Aixtron?s guidance), nobody should be surprised to see analysts such as Oddo and Berenberg to adjust their estimates down, elaborating about a peak order entry in 2021. DB linked the share price reaction on the reporting day to the order entry guidance as well.

I added to my position today at EUR 18.25.  

892 Postings, 1640 Tage CWL1Same here

 
  
    
2
24.11.21 14:57
No negative news I could detect.  Actually there are positive news this morning saying that the iPhone 14 will have new  VCSEL module for proximity and gesture sensing.    

2 Postings, 9 Tage eggmanIQE

 
  
    
1
24.11.21 15:38
1st time poster here - the move down seems to flow from IQE news.  They slashed their capex guide for year but it seems they are mostly pushing out payments to '22  

2 Postings, 9 Tage eggmaniqe link

 
  
    
24.11.21 15:45
 " iqep.com/media/press-releases/2021/trading-update/ "  

892 Postings, 1640 Tage CWL1FWIW, my 2 cents

 
  
    
2
24.11.21 18:45
I also added at 18.27.  My assessment is that IQE has company specific issues.  

II-VI has been taking share from IQE on VCSEL for iPhone through the FINNISAR operation in Sherman.  

In addition, VPEC is gaining shares from the Chinese telecom and smartphone companies due to the geopolitical situation.  VPEC has announced adding 20% capacity in2022 that's about 10 MOCVD.  

 

3379 Postings, 1415 Tage Der Paretoich sag's mal auf deutsch:

 
  
    
24.11.21 19:12
war heut nicht so ein schöner Tag für AIX.

Ins fallende Messer habe ich trotzdem gegriffen - habe halt statt zum Kaffee
nach Kölsch gegriffen ...    

892 Postings, 1640 Tage CWL1Looking into IQE 2021 Capex

 
  
    
2
24.11.21 22:04

IQE's 2021 capex cut probably has no impact to Aixtron.

On July 14 2021, IQE reported:
"Orders placed for three new Aixtron G4 reactors and three refurbished Aixtron G3
reactors, with delivery of tools expected in H2 2021 to increase capacity at IQE Taiwan
by over 20%, underpinning further anticipated growth in 2022 and beyond"

On Nov 24, IQE updated:
"Despite the challenges of supply chain constraints within the broader semiconductor industry,
the solid performance of GaAs throughout 2021 has resulted in high utilisation at the Group?s
Taiwan facility, where the Group is investing in eight new and refurbished tools. This includes
three new Aixtron G4 reactors which are now on-site and being commissioned to support
further growth in 2022."

So three G4 have been delivered and installed and the 2021 capex cut just announced should not affect the MOCVD.

 

465 Postings, 5406 Tage fel216@CWL

 
  
    
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25.11.21 09:14
Well analysed CWL, thank you. But even if it affected Aixtron, we all know that VCSEL is not the driver for orders at the moment, it is GAN/SIC.. I think the VCSEL orders have not been significant over recent quarters.

I think the interpretation by the market is more about "peak orders".. may it be GAN slowing (we know its not) and now IQE cutting ("VCSEL slowing" - we know it doesnt matter). So we can remain relaxed.

Remember that in the Q3 call they pointed towards mid/upper end of order guidance which does not imply a material slowdown.

Regards,
Fel  

465 Postings, 5406 Tage fel216CEO Grawert bought shares 2 days ago

 
  
    
1
26.11.21 11:09
Interesting directors dealing with CEO Grawert buying 75k ? worth of shares on 24.11. (the day of the IQE news) at 18.63. Shows his conviction. I would be surprised if he is not buying more today!

Regards,
Fel  

892 Postings, 1640 Tage CWL1Qualcomm abandoned IQE

 
  
    
1
30.11.21 20:51
IQE has lost share to VPEC in several areas which explains IQE's announcement  last week.  

"...According to market reports, Qualcomm abandoned IQE, a leading British epitaxy factory, and went to Taiwan to find PA partners. It is expected to be exclusively supplied by VPEC..."

"...In order to strengthen the energy of communication technology, Qualcomm reported that it will fully sprint its own research and development and design of PA business. Asia's gallium arsenide epitaxy leader is VPEC and is expected to become its exclusive raw material supplier. It has now entered the final verification stage and will be mass-produced and shipped next year. The bullish news also inspired the PA group to cheer on the 29th..."

https://ctee.com.tw/news/tech/557092.html  

72 Postings, 680 Tage joss.beaumontDirectors Dealing

 
  
    
01.12.21 12:26

465 Postings, 5406 Tage fel216Endlich Feuerwehrmann Joss!

 
  
    
1
01.12.21 17:09

Joss! Schön mal wieder von Dir zu lesen!

Deine Banane hat hier die letzten Wochen gefehlt.

Unsere Aix wird in 22 laufen, da bin ich überzeugt! Der Markt preist zu wenig Umsatz- und EBIT Wachstum ein denke ich. Alleine aus den APEVA Restrukturierungskosten die in 2022 rausfallen bekommen wir Rückenwind. Und die neuen Maschinen (und SIC) haben höheren Preis und somit Marge.

Sobald hier das Thema der Peak Orders überwunden ist, geht es wieder hart am Wind in Richtung 28 glaube ich.

Also gib uns ein kurzes Update zu belgischen Feuerwehr bitte!

Grüße aus der Grenzregion,
Fel  

72 Postings, 680 Tage joss.beaumontfel, derzeit bin ich in

 
  
    
1
01.12.21 18:38

eienem anderen Forum aktiver.

Aufgrund deines Posts werde ich aber versuchen, hier jetzt öfter ein paar Informationen einzustreuen.

Ach ja, die Bananenstory..... schön, das ich dich seinerzeit damit erheitern konnte. Zurzeit benötigt man ja so einige gelbe Kameraden. Ich fixiere die Vögel neuerdings immer mit einem Schweissdraht in meinem Esszimmer. Dann kann ich länger lachen (und durchhalten) bei dem derzeitigen Kurs.....

Leider ist unser FEUERWEHR-Dienst seit gestern Abend erst mal wieder Geschichte, da die Fallzahlen eindeutig zu hoch sind. Ich persönlich bin zwar drei Mal geimpft, aber dieser Vorteil ist nur wenig nützlich, wenn die anderen FW-Mitglieder noch nicht in den Genuss einer Boosterimpfung gekommen sind. Also keine Weihnachtsfeier, kein letzter Dienstabend etc. We will see.......

Ja, ich denke auch, dass es in 2022 deutlich nach vorne gehen wird mit unserer Aixtron. Aus vorgenanntem Grund bin ich auch weiterhin vollumfänglich investiert und trenne mich nicht von einem share. Tatsächlich habe ich das Niveau dazu genutzt, um weitere Stücke zu erwerben. so falsch kann das ja nicht sein.

Schlussendlich kaufen Dr. Grawert und Kim Schindlehauer ja nicht um Geld zu verbrennen, sondern weil sie wissen, was sie wissen - und das kann so negativ nicht sein.

Adventliche Grüße in die Grenzregion

GF Joss




 

72 Postings, 680 Tage joss.beaumontNexperia

 
  
    
03.12.21 09:33

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