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Aixtron purpose of this thread

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neuester Beitrag: 07.12.21 20:08
eröffnet am: 10.01.20 16:19 von: baggo-mh Anzahl Beiträge: 1164
neuester Beitrag: 07.12.21 20:08 von: joss.beaumo. Leser gesamt: 200468
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897 Postings, 1645 Tage CWL1Sanan Mini/Micro LED Expansion

 
  
    
4
30.09.21 13:37
Raising $1B to add mini/micro LED 4" wafer capacity for 750,000 GaAs/year  and 1.61m GaN/year.  

897 Postings, 1645 Tage CWL1Sanan Mini/Micro LED Expansion, details

 
  
    
2
02.10.21 19:52
https://www.ledinside.com.tw/news/20211001-37638.html

The full investment amount is actually 12B Yuan ($1.8B).  To produce a total of 2.36m 4 inch wafers annually (750,000 GaAs, 1.61m GaN) would need about 100-150 G4 and G5 equivalent MOCVD.  My estimate is basing on 3-4 process runs per day.  The total MOCVD costs would be about $200m-300m.

While Aixtron's G5 does not have the regular blue LED market, it has the competitive edge for mini/micro blue LED manufacturing due to its uniformity and low defect films.  Therefore it is also possible that Sanan would order some G5 for the blue mini/micro LED.  Sanan most likely would order G4 for GaAs LED given that G4 is the tool of choice.  

 

466 Postings, 5411 Tage fel216Infineon CMD today. Raise capex by 50%!

 
  
    
1
05.10.21 08:33
Morning all,

The Infineon CMd is a MUST WATCH event today for us. A special section on GAN and SIC. It starts in 6hrs and is available via the website. I will go through the presentation as it comes online.

Key highlight already: they raise their capex budget for next year by 50% to 2.4bn, from 1.6bn!

Given their ambition in SIC let?s hope a lot of that budget goes towards Aixtron ;)

Regards!
Fel  

466 Postings, 5411 Tage fel216IFX on SIC and GAN

 
  
    
3
05.10.21 15:53
In todays CMD Infineon detailed that they generated ca. 200m $ in revenue from SIC products in the past FY, a +100% increase from year 2020. They expect 90% growth in the next fiscal year (started on 01.10.) and see the total market in 2025 (termed mid-20s) at 1bn $ sales with IFX having 30% market share. They say the growth this year is only limited by production capacity !

On GAN they quote "market forecasts" showing a market size from 47m USD in 2020 increasing to 801m in 2025, so 76% CAGR.
Focus applications are among others ( i cant read all): Chargers, 5G, wireless charging and servers/datacenters
Emerging applications in GAN: Solar, EV charging, white goods (e.g. washing machines etc).

So to me this sounds like broader applications than only fast charging which is often pointed to by Aixtron.

Will add links when the presentation is online.

 

897 Postings, 1645 Tage CWL1MOCVD Digestion

 
  
    
4
19.10.21 16:47
There have been fears that the GaN power segment is pausing to digest the newly installed MOCVD capacities.

Yesterday's analyst downgrade is probably rooted from that thinking. Sometimes people try to be smart, or too smart, to get ahead of the others.  I think the analyst is being too smart.  I have not read his report so I cannot judge what quantitative analysis and any detailed market survey he has done.  If it is based on his gut feeling, or just fear, then I question the rationale.

There was a report out two days ago saying TSMC has 20 MOCVD in 2021 and planning to add another 10 in 2022. That is a 50% increase of TSMC's capacity. We know TSMC targets the GaN-on-Si mainly to supply NAVITAS and other players of course.  If we use TSMC as a market gauge, then certainly it is not slowing down.

For any company that wants to gain in the Generation 3 compound semiconductors, CAPACITY is the king. If you don't have installed capacity to meet the demands coming, then forget about it. That applies to mini LED, VCSSELS, GaN, and SiC of course. Do you think they would pause at this stage?  

5135 Postings, 3079 Tage dlg.ASML

 
  
    
20.10.21 09:04
Many thanks for your thoughts, CWL - as usual very interesting and sounds plausible. Unfortunately, I haven?t seen the Oddo note, thus cannot confirm your ?gut feeling? assumption.

Though not directly comparable, ASML just released a EUR 6.2bn booking number per 30 Sep (guidants.com mentions that consensus stood at EUR 4.2bn, not sure whether this was a typo).

"The demand continues to be high. The ongoing digital transformation and current chip shortage fuel the need to increase our capacity to meet the current and expected future demand for Memory and for all Logic nodes.
Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/asml-reports-5-2-billion-050000960.html  

897 Postings, 1645 Tage CWL1TSMC MOCVD

 
  
    
4
20.10.21 15:09
"TSMC currently has nearly 20 MOCVD organic vapor phase layer machines into GaN mass production, and it is expected to add another 10 equipment to expand production next year"

https://tw.stock.yahoo.com/news/...D%E5%82%99%E6%88%B0-234733273.html

 

466 Postings, 5411 Tage fel216Interview with CEO Grawert in WiWo

 
  
    
1
25.10.21 09:57
Morning all,

for a good start to the week, a little interview with CEO Grawert in German Magazine Wirtschaftswoche:
https://www.wiwo.de/erfolg/management/...-nichts-zu-tun/27723886.html


Regards,
Fel  

5135 Postings, 3079 Tage dlg.WOLF

 
  
    
28.10.21 10:57
Wolfspeed +16% in pre-market trading following quarterly results: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/...ancial-results-first-200500573.html

 

86 Postings, 834 Tage BigGelddlg.: sind jetzt 31%

 
  
    
28.10.21 17:56

86 Postings, 62 Tage ResilientWolf vs II VI

 
  
    
29.10.21 08:31
yf - board ...Thanks for posting about WOLF as I wasn't aware of them. The strength of WOLF in SiC certainly validates IIVI's optimism and investment in this technology....  

466 Postings, 5411 Tage fel216ST Micro: Strong Q3, very strong SIC demand

 
  
    
1
29.10.21 10:11
Hi all,

strong Q3 results and guidance raise by ST Micro yesterday. The Auto end-market was obviously hit by production stoppages but they expect strong growth here in Q4 and overall remain very bullish in particular also on SIC.

The highlights:
- "Our SIC capacity is increasing quarter after quarter".
- Now have 85 SIC programs with 70 customers, 50-50 split into automotive and industrial. In Industrial a lot of demand relates to charging stations.
- They now expect $ 1bn in SIC revenues in 2024, one year earlier than originally anticipated as EV adoption goes faster than expected.
https://investors.st.com/static-files/...-1663-4862-a806-8712d0164c83

So Outlook for SIC is to ramp over 2022/23 in terms of equipment demand in my view. That aligns with Aixtrons view that latest in 2023 we should be expecting volume orders, in my view this could start in Q3-22 given lead times from orders to installed machine.


Regards!
Fel  

5135 Postings, 3079 Tage dlg.Veeco

 
  
    
03.11.21 09:07
Solid results, shares +2% in after hours trading.

Transcript: https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/...21-earnings-call-t/  

466 Postings, 5411 Tage fel216Aix Q3 tomorrow

 
  
    
3
03.11.21 10:27
Hi all,

Q3 results in da house tomorrow. I have no big conviction this time and wonder if for once it will a quieter day for Aixtron shares tomorrow instead of +/- 10% intraday swings..

My expectations are: Orders at ca. 105-110m, strong sales maybe at 130m (Q2 was 68m) (as always guided by the company, Q3 better vs. Q2, Q4 better vs. Q3) and strong EBIT at ca. 35m, 27% margin.
EBIT should benefit from a) strong volumes, b) no more APEVA restructuring costs (they incured 5-10 in H1-21) and c) the beneficial EUR/USD FX rate.
I do not expect a significant change to guidance, maybe some narrowing towards the upper end of the SALES and EBIT Guidance (420-460m sales and 20-22% EBIT margin is the current guidance), consensus currently at 430m and 21.3% margin (91.7m).. so if they narrow towards the upper end there could be 8% upside on EBIT if consensus assumes 460m and 21.5% margin. However with the stock already on 20x 2022 EV/EBIT I dont think this would trigger a major move beyond +3-5%.

In any case I think the comments about SIC/GAN and 2022 Outlook are way more important for the stock than sales/EBIT for 2021. So watch for that and Q3 order intake.

Consensus assumes 5% revenue growth for 2022. I think that has some upside potential as long as orders stay solid and management doesnt talk about slowing momentum in GAN and confirms that SIC should see more volume in 2022!

As excited as ever,
Fel  

5135 Postings, 3079 Tage dlg.@Fel

 
  
    
3
03.11.21 13:38
Hi Fel,

many thanks for your well balanced view on tomorrow?s results ? much appreciated! I tend to agree with your assessment, but feel a bit more comfortable going into the earnings. For the first time in two years it seems that we do not go into earnings with lofty expectations, i.e.:  i) share price is some 20% below this year?s peak, underperforming the market in recent weeks,  ii) Aixtron?s management has well flagged that 2Q21 order entry will not be repeated,  iii) Oddo downgrade had its impact (on expectations) as well. As you mentioned, I do hope that there will be a positive narrowing in terms of revenues/EBIT guidance ? there are only 8 weeks left for this year and the EUR/USD FX guidance rate of 1.25 compares to ~1.18 average ytd EUR/USD rate (spot <1.16).

I also do have the hope that the ?headline? growth numbers ? maybe revenues +100% and EBIT +300% vs. 3Q20 ? might be well perceived by the market. As you indicated, a quieter trading day would be very much welcomed, nobody needs the usual quarterly results drama?  

5135 Postings, 3079 Tage dlg.Peers

 
  
    
1
03.11.21 15:54
Veeco +11% currently?one might add this as another positive sign that recent earnings announcements of the likes of Wolf (+30%?), Veeco (+11%), STM have been well perceived by the market.  

897 Postings, 1645 Tage CWL1Veeco MOCVD

 
  
    
03.11.21 16:09
Veeco had a total sales of $23M on wet processing + MOCVD in Q3, and the MOCVD revenue is likely to be a small fraction of the $23m.  The below is from the CC last night. It seems Veeco's  MOCVD are still mainly at the EVA (EVALUATION) stage, so VEECO has a lot of catching up to do:

Auguste Philip Richard -- Northland Capital Markets -- Research Division-MD & Senior Research Analyst

Got it. And then on the compound semi, I think you've mentioned power, RF and photonics. Now I was just wondering if you could give a little bit of color on the MOCVD side, how much of your business these days is photonics and how much of it is power? And how much of it is RF?

William John Miller -- CEO & Director

Sure. Let me try to take that apart a little bit. I would say, Gus, our MOCVD business is really operating at historically low revenues today post exit of their commoditized LED business. We did a lot of work restructuring the business and pivoting toward new markets and new opportunities. And as you know, we go after the gallium nitride applications with our propel single-wafer reactor, and that can be used for both power electronics, RF devices as well as disruptive silicon-based micro LED applications. And we have a second product for arsenide phosphide called Lumina for applications in photonics, such as indium phosphide lasers, VCSELs as well as red micro LEDS. I would say we are starting to gain tractions in MOCVD. I would say in the near term, we expect to see revenue growth in early stage micro LED next year. And from a number of opportunities, including AR/VR as well as other photonics applications. Also, as I mentioned, we did see the 8-inch GaN-on-Silicon power market with multiple customers and placed an eval for 8-inch power electronics at a large foundry. We also, as I mentioned, placed an eval tool for red micro LED. So to answer your question, I would say, this year, we did have a fair amount of power electronics business with a single-wafer reactor at 8-inch. But I would say we're not seeing most of the production today is on six inch. So I would say we're in a bit of a seeding waiting game for that market to develop. So as I look forward, I would say, our business is largely more predominantly going to be in micro LED applications, whether that's disruptive or traditional red micro LED going forward. So I don't know if John, if you have any more color you want to add.  

897 Postings, 1645 Tage CWL1RED Micro LED

 
  
    
03.11.21 16:26
There are also interesting comments on the future RED micro LED whether they would be GaAs based or GaN-on-Si based. This is very relevant to Aixtron since Aixtron is predominant on red GaAs LED and needs to address the emergent GaN-on-Si red micro LED market.

https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/...21-earnings-call-t/

Auguste Philip Richard -- Northland Capital Markets -- Research Division-MD & Senior Research Analyst

Right, right. No, I get it. And then just -- this probably isn't a fair question, but any color on who is ahead the arsenide phosphide on gallium nitride or the micro LED on silicon, the red on silicon, which program looks like it's advancing more quickly.

William John Miller -- CEO & Director

I would say, Gus, that we're actually -- it looks like, at this time, it looks like both are proceeding. We are seeing activity in the traditional -- the traditional approach of red, green and blue pixels for a luxury TV type markets. It looks like that's starting to happen. And we're seeing AR/VR applications with nontraditional kind of GaN-on-Silicon type solution. So right now, I would say it's fairly hard to handicap where we are. But I would say it looks like they're both moving forward.

Auguste Philip Richard -- Northland Capital Markets -- Research Division-MD & Senior Research Analyst

And I'll -- my last question. So it sounds like it's more application-specific in terms of which [Indecipherable] is going to be used.

William John Miller -- CEO & Director

Today, I would say that seems to be the case. I'd love to see kind of how it all plays out overall.  

5135 Postings, 3079 Tage dlg.Results

 
  
    
04.11.21 08:02
My first take: almost a ?Punktlandung? if I compare the actual results with yesterday?s fel Research outlook - chapeau!!

Order intake some 7m above your estimate, EBIT margin in line with your estimate (but some 2-3ppts better than eg the DB estimate).

I don?t fully get why they haven?t narrowed the revenue guidance?there are only some 8 weeks left and service revenues shouldn?t be that volatile - why keeping the EUR 40m spread?  

5135 Postings, 3079 Tage dlg.Groundhog Day

 
  
    
1
04.11.21 09:32
Our ?Save the drama for your mama? plea from yesterday was obviously not responded to?another 10% swing pre-market vs. opening. At earnings release days, this stock is a beast!  

466 Postings, 5411 Tage fel216Q3 call over and very solid. No deceleration.

 
  
    
4
04.11.21 16:08
Hi all,

just briefly as the Conf call just finished. Overall a very solid call, clearly guiding towards the upper end of the order range, so Q4 should be around minimum 100, I think rather 110m (Q3: 114), with management ruling out the lower end (would imply 65m in Q4) - no idea why they did not narrow the range. Sales on track in Q4, margin will be good as well.

- NO DECELERATION in GAN - is the key message from the call. It started with consumer electronics (fast charging) but now the applications are clearly broadening out and adoption rising, that means customers adding capacity. They see this as a stable trend also into 2022. New applications are telco base stations, datacenters (sounded more advanced) but also automotive starting, e.g. BMW announced using GAN in onboard chargers. That is rare as usually Auto takes long in adoption.

- All other end-markets (Laser, datacenter/datacom, ROY LED) remain on solid levels and are expected to stay that way.

- SIC. Very strong and much clearer comments vs. 9 months ago. Expect volume orders in H2-22 and "significant volume" in 2023. Customers are placing orders now, takes 6-9 months of delivery (so deliver in Q2) and 2 months of installation. That means customer can work with tool and then decide for orders in Q3/Q4-22. Very credible framing in my view.

- Micro LED: Are in collaboration with other players. Volume ramp might happen from 2023 onwards.

- Question: "Can we expect growth in 2022?" We have a strong backlog that will drive H1 sales and expect order intake to continue at this level. "That means 22 will be a strong year again".


Other highlights:
- no issues in the supply chain
- SIC market growing rapidly.
- 15% tax rate only.
- 330m in cash on the balance sheet.
- confirm FY Guidance. Expect Q4 sales above Q3 level.

My view: 2022 should see 10% sales growth and a bit of margin expansion (no APEVA restructuring costs, new equipment with higher price/gross margin), so maybe 115m in EBIT vs. current consensus on 105m. Stock trades on 20x EBIT on the 105m consensus which is in-line with history, so not expensive. I think the stock can trade sideways a bit but clearly it should not drop towards 16-17.. the investment case is fully in tact and will gain more speed as SIC and Micro LED ramp.

Cheers!
Fel
 

5135 Postings, 3079 Tage dlg.Aixtron

 
  
    
2
05.11.21 09:44
Thanks again for your valuable input, fel - much appreciated! After having listened to the replay, I agree with your conclusions and don?t see a reason to reduce my position even if the valuation seems rich based on the ?headline numbers? (btw. Veeco is now trading at a 53x/30x PE for 2021/22).

However, while I have always appreciated Aixtron?s IR, this time I feel they have done a lousy job in terms of guidance. At 7.30am they publish a wide 40m guidance of 400-440m / 440-480m in sales / order entry just to say 7.5hrs later that the strong momentum is continuing (indicating the upper end of the range) and - in particular - mentioning that the lower end is ?out of reach?. If something is ?out of reach?, why providing this number a couple of hours earlier? Just doesn?t make sense.

I understand Aixtron?s conservativeness and the track record in underpromising and overdelivering, but there is no justification to provide a guidance number that is ?out of reach? - especially considering that there are just eight weeks left in this year. At least a 420-440m / 460-480m number would have made sense and in my view it would have done less harm to the share price to deliver a, say, 428m revenue number in Feb if guidance had been 420-440m, than what happened today. Now we are left with this slight disappointment until the year-end results are published in Feb 2022. This could have been handled more shareholder friendly!  

897 Postings, 1645 Tage CWL1MOCVD Digestion?

 
  
    
2
05.11.21 15:24
Enkris is starting the construction of a GaN-on-Si plant this month with 120K 6 inch and 120K 8 inch epi wafers annual capacity.   Enkris is a customer of Aixtron.  The completion of the plant is 02/23, so the order should be placed in 2022.  My estimate is ~30 G5.  T his is just one example.  I can't see a slow down of GaN either.

https://www.eet-china.com/mp/a87542.html
http://en.enkris.com/page/html/  

897 Postings, 1645 Tage CWL1Another Example of new applications of GaN

 
  
    
2
05.11.21 15:38
Credit: DIGITIMES
10/19/2021 news

Unikorn Semiconductor, a provider of compound semiconductor foundry services, expects its operation to grow by 2-3 times over the next 3-5 years and accordingly is in preparation to expand production capacity and set up production capacity for new products, according to company chairman Wayne Shih and president JS Wen.

Unikorn provides foundry services for two categories of semiconductors: Optoelectronics and microelectronics, with the former focusing on VCSEL and microLED and the latter on RF PA (power amplifier), filters and power devices.

VCSEL can be widely used in proximity sensing, 3D facial recognition and under-display fingerprint recognition, optical communication such as 25G fiber-optic communication.

For microLED, Unikorn has been in cooperation with international enterprises to develop microLED panels for use in large-size displays and AR/VR devices.

Microelectronic semiconductors are mainly based on GaN, a key material. Through cooperation with Global Communication Semiconductors - its strategic shareholder with a 45.39% stake - Unikorn is developing high-frequency, high-voltage and high-current 5G RF PA based on GaN for use in 5G base stations as well as BAW (bulk acoustic wave) filters for use in 5G smartphones.

While GaN has been mostly used in 65W fast charging devices, Unikorn has begun development of GaN-based PA for use in 5G smartphones, mainly because such PA semiconductors used in a 5G smartphone can be 50% or one-third fewer than those based on other materials. However, adoption of GaN is faced with physical constraints arising from material attributes and technological challenges and it will take time to solve these problems.

For GaN-based power devices, Unikorn looks to potential application to motherboards, home electric appliances, LED light panels and AC/DC power switches.

With a capital expenditure budget of over NT$1.0 billion (US$35.7 million), Unikorn will begin expansion of production capacity and establishment of capacity for new products in 2022.

Unikorn currently has eight MOCVD sets for foundry of epitaxial wafers, with some used by clients to test products. Besides adding MOCVD sets, Unikorn can substantially increase foundry capacity temporarily through cooperation with Epistar, its parent company engaged in production of LED and miniLED epitaxial wafers.

Shift from 4-inch semiconductor wafers to 6- and 8-inch ones is already a trend, and for GaN-on-Si wafers, 8-inch ones are more likely than 6-inch ones. Therefore, Unikorn plans to procure 8-inch MOCVD sets over the next 3-5 years, with the new equipment likely to be used to initially produce filters and power devices.
 

1402 Postings, 5448 Tage rosskataThe stock reaction on the Q3 results

 
  
    
05.11.21 21:40
seems to me like a speculation on order intake peak. Same thing what happened start of 2018, when the OI for 3D sensing  peaked and the stock went for a long consolidation. Essentially, this was the end of the initial VCSEL wave (and still waiting for the next wave). A weaker OI in Q3 could have triggered speculation on similar development.
I could imagine that the next 2 Qs the OI will plateau expecting to take on again around Q3-Q4 driven by massive orders for SiC (what others stated here and what after all Aix expects).
So, to me any dip below 20 eur should not be for long ... if at all. If this happens, I consider stocking up.

Nevertheless, I still see Aixtron as a clear cyclical stock/company and the the time will come when the turnover will decrease and the stock will follow. Aixtron needs always to look for the next technological wave to ride on. In between are the valleys.  

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