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Aixtron purpose of this thread

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neuester Beitrag: 20.10.21 15:09
eröffnet am: 10.01.20 16:19 von: baggo-mh Anzahl Beiträge: 1107
neuester Beitrag: 20.10.21 15:09 von: CWL1 Leser gesamt: 182284
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1201 Postings, 4239 Tage baggo-mhAixtron purpose of this thread

 
  
    
14
10.01.20 16:19

For the time being this forum is closed to keep users that do not contribute essential news around the stock, the market opportunity or messages related to it out.

Please be friendly to eachother and keep political discussions out.

Thank you
 laugthingcool baggo-mh

 
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1081 Postings ausgeblendet.

69 Postings, 640 Tage joss.beaumontfel216:

 
  
    
03.09.21 10:30

Very interesting article. 

Thnaks for sharing it with us.

Wäre natürlich optimal, wenn AIX hieran partizipieren könnte.

avec nos meilleures salutations

Joss

 

431 Postings, 5366 Tage fel216baggo mh

 
  
    
06.09.21 11:42
Hi all,

just a quick (and sad) info that Baggo MH asked me to place in the forum here:

He is currently blocked from the Forum and can thus no longer participate here at the moment.

No idea why, but that explains why he is not active at the moment. I hope he can solve the issue in the short-term.

Cheers,
Fel  

67 Postings, 789 Tage BigGeldfel216:

 
  
    
06.09.21 12:32
Das kann heute sehr schnell gehen, ein falsches Wort und der Kanal ist erst mal außer Gefecht gesetzt. YouTube, Facebook und Twitter sind solche beispiele    

1 Posting, 51 Tage stksat|229361684Finanzen.at

 
  
    
1
06.09.21 20:47
kann unser Forum bei Finanzen.at lesen.

Irgendwie scheint hier einiges im Argen zu liegen.
Ich selbst habe nichts veranlasst und Ariva meldet sich auch nicht mehr zu diesem Problem. Zuletzt vor einer Woche - man hat mich nciht vergessen und arbeitet an dem Problem.

Gruß
baggo-mh
 
Angehängte Grafik:
baggo-mh_001.jpg (verkleinert auf 39%) vergrößern
baggo-mh_001.jpg

431 Postings, 5366 Tage fel216SIC at IAA

 
  
    
1
08.09.21 11:06
In Germany the worlds largest Auto trade show, IAA, just started and so far there are some articles that showcase the adoption of SIC in the industry, for example see ZF or Bosch below.  Supports the view that SIC ramp up is coming over 2022/23. Regards, Fel

https://www.automotiveworld.com/news-releases/...velopment-of-e-cars/

https://www.bosch-semiconductors.com/events/iaa-2021.html  

431 Postings, 5366 Tage fel216More SIC news

 
  
    
1
08.09.21 15:09
Sorry for spamming, but more news on SIC that support my thesis that the industry is really starting to organise itself ahead of volume ramp over the next years. Here a press release from Applied Materials.

Maybe others like @Baggo, DLG or CWL can add more expertise?

NEW APPLIED MATERIALS TECHNOLOGIES HELP LEADING SILICON CARBIDE CHIPMAKERS ACCELERATE THE TRANSITION TO 200MM WAFERS AND INCREASE CHIP PERFORMANCE AND POWER EFFICIENCY

Key to the world?s best electric vehicle power trains, silicon carbide chips are transitioning to larger, 200mm wafers which boost output to meet growing global demand
Applied?s new 200mm CMP system precisely removes silicon carbide material from wafers to help maximize chip performance, reliability and yield
Applied?s new ?hot implant? technology for silicon carbide chips injects ions with minimum damage to crystalline structures, thereby maximizing power generation and device yield

https://ir.appliedmaterials.com/news-releases/...ding-silicon-carbide
 

878 Postings, 1600 Tage CWL1SiC EV market

 
  
    
6
17.09.21 16:20
One 6" SiC wafer produces chips for 6 electric vehicles according to the chairman of Foxconn which is moving into SiC manufacturing.  

The projected total number of 2025 EV's is 20 million. If we assume a G5 WW produces 16 six inch epi wafers per day, by then the industry would need about 600 G5-equivalent tools to meet that demand.

This is only for SiC chips on cars. It does no include SiC for all other applications.  

878 Postings, 1600 Tage CWL1correction

 
  
    
17.09.21 16:25
one six inch wafers for 8 EV's according to Foxconn.  

431 Postings, 5366 Tage fel216Foxconn timeline

 
  
    
1
21.09.21 09:50
Hi CWL,

excellent research once again, thank you!

Have you got any idea about the timeline behind their decisions? Do I understand correctly that so far they are not active in SIC? If they are not, it would mean that they have to decide for Aixtron or Tokyo Electron equipment (or maybe both to run dual sourcing).

Given Chinas progress in EV's one should really expect them to place first orders relatively soon in order to follow the market quickly, dont you think?

Would be interesting to read and discuss more about Foxconn.

All the best!
Fel  

1201 Postings, 4239 Tage baggo-mhHi all - Ariva has fixed my login problems

 
  
    
21.09.21 14:55

as I was watching from outside I discovered that this thread can be viewed and accessed from outside.

Best regards
laugthingcool baggo-mh

 

1201 Postings, 4239 Tage baggo-mhAlsterResearch Round Table mit der Aixtron IR

 
  
    
6
21.09.21 15:57

ich habe am 14.09. am o.g. Event teilgenommen und folgende Notizen für mich gemacht.

Der Einfachheit halber stelle ich einfach mein Word Dokument hier ein.

12 Teilnehmer ? davon 2 mal AlsterResearch
1 Aixtron IR zu zweit
Dauer 80 Minuten

Halbleiter (Silizium, TSMC, Intel, Speicherchips) sind nicht das Gleiche wie Verbindungshalbleiter die aus versch. Materialien der Periodenklassen III und V zusammengesetzt werden. Aixtron stellt Maschinen zur Herstellung von Verbindungshalbleitern her.

Financials
Oliver Wojahn covered die Aktie seit August 2001.
Damals buy Ziel ? 31 ? heute buy Ziel ? 29 ohne MicroLED opportunity eingepreist zu haben.
Credit rating: A up from BBB
current cash position invested in very conservative Fonds
Happy with order guidance range of 440-480 (last update was for a range of 420 to 460 maybe GP mistakenly mentioned the increased figures already) Es gibt noch einiges zu tun, aber wir sind happy mit der Guidance
ESG Funds are increasingly interested in investing

LED
Hydroculture (Licht und water purification)  
ROY für Mini Displays

Micro LED - Alle Farben ? RGB  auch blau
         -§Hat noch keine große Effekte aber wenn es kommt, dann kommt es
         -§Wirft langsam seine Schatten voraus.
         -§Industrie geht langsam davon aus, dass das kommen wird - Apple watch maybe 2023
         -§Challenges:
         o§Fehlerfreie wafer (Vorteil Aixtron) und
         o§Transfer Technologie im nachgelagerten Elektrifikations-Prozess

Laser
3D- Sensing - Apple Face ID Handy introduction führte zu einem Oversupply im Markt. Wird jetzt langsam verdaut.
Next Application: Handy world side
In allen Glasfaserkabeln zur optischen Datenübertragung stecken die Produkte die auf Aixtron
Maschinen hergestellt wurden.

 

1201 Postings, 4239 Tage baggo-mhAlsterResearch Round Table mit der Aixtron IR

 
  
    
6
21.09.21 15:58

Leistungselektronik
GaN bis 600 Volt und SiC > 600 Volt sind die beiden Technologien an Start

GaN und 5G
Auf Aixtron Maschinen hergestellte GaN Chips findet man
         -§Schnelladen in Handy-chargern: Infineon, TMSC, wurden genannt
         -§Server Farmen bis 600 Volt
         -§Auf allen 5G Sendemasten
80% Marktanteil und neue Tools in der Entwicklung (Vollautomatisiert)
Nächste Anwendungen: Haushaltsgeräte ?? Derzeit 6 Silizium Chips 2 pro Phase könnten durch einen GaN Chip ersetzt werden.

GaAS chips
3G, 4G Empfangs-Chips in Handys von Aixtron Maschinen
5G Empfangschips noch nicht da noch nicht die gesamte Bandbreite des 5G Übertragungsspektrums genutzt wird.

SIC
Jahresvolume 30-50 Anlagen/Jahr für die nächsten 5 Jahre
Preise 3; 3,5; bis 4 Millionen Euro je nach Ausstattung
Die Technik wird immer dort genutzt wo Ströme oder hohe Wattzahlen anfallen. Derzeit ist der main inverter in electric vehicles (EV) Silizium basiert. In Zukunft wird das SiC sein weil das Strom und platzsparender ist.
Market Leader ist Tokyo Elektron. Kleinere Mitbewerber LPE Italien und ein weiters Unternehmen
Es gibt 5 große Kunden:
         -      Cree
         -  Infineon §
         -§ST Micro
         -§ON Semi
         -      Rohm§
Einer ist ein jahrelanger treuer Aixtron Bestandskunde (Cree wurde nicht genannt) und man hat Epiworld (CN) und Bosch als Neukunden gewinnen können.

Jetzt arbeitet man daran Tokyo Elektron die Marktanteile abzujagen durch
         -§lower cost of ownership
         -§fully automated
         -§upgrade Möglichkeit from 6 to 8?
Man muss den nächsten Capex Cycle der Kunden für die Umstellung erwischen um die neue Aufträge zu erhalten.  

Gruß
laugthingcool baggo-mh

 

878 Postings, 1600 Tage CWL1Foxconn

 
  
    
5
21.09.21 18:00
The 6" plant would be purchased by the end of the year.  There is no timeline mentioned but certainly time is the essence of catching this SiC ramp.

There are a lot of SiC activities.  It takes a long time for auto qualification.  Therefore the initial epi tools have to be installed at the IDM's and/or their epi suppliers  very soon to meet their qualification timelines to the auto makers which are pushing out EV's ASAP.  For Aixtron it has to get the G5 WW C in now for the qualification phase.    

878 Postings, 1600 Tage CWL1Showa Denko SiC Epi Wafers

 
  
    
6
23.09.21 00:43
Showa Denko is an early customer of Aixtron on G5 WW for SiC epi wafers:
https://www.aixtron.com/en/investors/...de%20Production%20System_n338

Showa Denko just signed long-term contracts with Rohm and Infineon to provide SiC epi wafers this year:
https://www.sdk.co.jp/english/news/2021/41372.html
https://www.sdk.co.jp/english/news/2021/39938.html

Rohm and Infineon are IDM's (Integrated Device Manufacturer) and have their own SiC epi wafer capability.  However, they also rely on outside SiC epi wafers providers like Showa Denko, CREE, etc.

Showa Denko raised about $50m in August issuing stocks  to expand its SiC related capacity.

 

1398 Postings, 5403 Tage rosskataGaN and SiC growth

 
  
    
4
24.09.21 21:25

Demand for telecom base stations, converters, and charging stations is creating demand for components and devices powered by third-generation semiconductors GaN and SiC.

According to TrendForce, the GaN power market will undergo the highest magnitude of growth with revenues for 2021 to reach $83 million, an impressive 73 percent YoY increase. Going forward, annual GaN power devices revenue is expected to grow at a 78 percent CAGR and reach $850 million in 2025.

Consumer electronics, NEVs, and telecom/data centres, comprise the three largest sources of GaN power devices consumption, at 60 percent, 20 percent, and 15 percent, respectively.

TrendForce finds that about ten smartphone OEMs have released more than 18 models of smartphones equipped with fast charging capability, while notebook manufacturers are also indicating a willingness to adopt fast charging for notebook computers.

Annual SiC revenue, on the other hand, is expected to grow at a 38 percent CAGR and reach $3.39 billion in 2025, with NEVs, solar power generation/storage, and charging stations representing the top three largest source of SiC power device consumption, at 61 percent, 13 percent, and 9 percent, respectively. For the NEV industry, in particular, SiC power devices are most widely used in powertrain inverters, OBCs (on board chargers), and DC-DC converters.

IDMs from Europe, the US, and Japan control substrate supply

Due to their relative difficulty in epitaxial growth and the fact that the industry is moving from 6-inch towards 8-inch substrates as the mainstream, third-generation semiconductor GaN and SiC substrates are 5-20 times more expensive to manufacture compared to traditional 8-inch and 12-inch Si substrates.

Most substrate materials are, at the moment, controlled by major IDMs as US-based Cree and II-VI, Japan-based Rohm, and Europe-based STMicroelectronics. In response to this, certain Chinese suppliers, including SICC and Tankeblue, have successively entered the substrate market with the support of China's 14th five-year plan, with an aim to accelerate China's goal of semiconductor self-sufficiency.

Although substrate suppliers from Europe, the US, and Japan enjoy an early presence in the market and possess relatively mature process technologies, TrendForce believes that Taiwanese suppliers still hold certain competitive advantages.

For instance, not only do Taiwanese companies have vast experiences in silicon development, but Taiwan is also home to a comprehensive upstream/downstream silicon supply chain. In addition to these aforementioned advantages, Taiwan is further aided by policies that promote domestic material supply, design, and technological development. Taiwan could therefore achieve its goal of becoming a centre of advanced semiconductor fabrication that derives its strength from a gradually maturing front-end substrate and epitaxy industry chain, as well as mid- and back-end competencies in chip design, manufacturing, and packaging.

Currently, two major strategic alliances, led by Hermes-Epitek (with subsidiaries EPI and EPISIL), and SAS (with subsidiaries GW, AWSC, CWT, and ATC) are attempting to maximise their efforts in Taiwan's lacking substrate industry. Furthermore, TAISIC, jointly funded by KENMEC and TAINERGY, has submitted 4-inch SiC substrates for qualification and is actively investing in 6-inch SiC substrate R&D.

https://compoundsemiconductor.net/article/113584/...rowing_At_78_CAGR  

431 Postings, 5366 Tage fel216ASM International raises guidance on strong demand

 
  
    
2
28.09.21 09:11

Strong orders, demand not cooling off. I dont know the company but it seems that there is some cross-read to Aixtron etc given they talk about "next generation semiconductor devices".

Surely CWL knows better how to interpret?

ASM today also announces that the order intake in Q3 2021 is expected to exceed previous guidance.

Link:
https://www.asm.com/Pages/Press-releases/...s://www.asm.com/investors

Some interesting slides on Semi Capex spending, forecasts and applications in their IR presentation as well:
https://www.asm.com/Downloads/2021_Q2_Investor_presentation.pdf

Regards,
Fel  

431 Postings, 5366 Tage fel216Micron outlook weak, Capex guidance raised

 
  
    
2
29.09.21 09:16
Hi all,

US memory player Micron reported last night with the sales guidance below expectations (guide 7.65bn vs consensus at 8.6bn) and stock -4% as a result.

However they raise capex spending into their next FY (i.e. 2022) to 11-12bn after spending 9.7bn in 2021, so a 15% increase at mid-point.

Unlikely that this is a direct read-x to Aixtron but I note that there have recently been concerns in the market that we are reaching the peak level in Capex for the semi industry. Aixtron (as capex customer) should hopefully be different given the shift to "next gen" semis, but nevertheless it is important to be aware of the market concerns for the sector overall.

For Aixtron, analysts currently expect 8.6% sales growth for 2022 to ? 466m and 107m EBIT (23% Margin). On these estimates the stock currently trades on 20x EBIT which is in-line with its historic valuation (range of 17-23x). So in essence we have to hope for further strong orders/revenue growth in 2022 to drive the stock price further. Given that we stand at the early stage of GAN/SIC/Micro LED adoption with 3D sensing and datacenter/telco remaining stable contributors and 5G the wildcard, I would hope/think that top-line growth remains stronger than 8.6%.. but its hard to say!

Regards,
Fel  

5052 Postings, 3034 Tage dlg.ASML

 
  
    
29.09.21 18:45
Many thanks for all your valuable updates, fel! I will try to provide my feedback in the next couple of days.

In terms of news from the industry, we also had the ASML investor day this afternoon, press release and presentations can be found here: https://www.asml.com/en/investors/investor-days/2021  

878 Postings, 1600 Tage CWL1Sanan Mini/Micro LED Expansion

 
  
    
4
30.09.21 13:37
Raising $1B to add mini/micro LED 4" wafer capacity for 750,000 GaAs/year  and 1.61m GaN/year.  

878 Postings, 1600 Tage CWL1Sanan Mini/Micro LED Expansion, details

 
  
    
2
02.10.21 19:52
https://www.ledinside.com.tw/news/20211001-37638.html

The full investment amount is actually 12B Yuan ($1.8B).  To produce a total of 2.36m 4 inch wafers annually (750,000 GaAs, 1.61m GaN) would need about 100-150 G4 and G5 equivalent MOCVD.  My estimate is basing on 3-4 process runs per day.  The total MOCVD costs would be about $200m-300m.

While Aixtron's G5 does not have the regular blue LED market, it has the competitive edge for mini/micro blue LED manufacturing due to its uniformity and low defect films.  Therefore it is also possible that Sanan would order some G5 for the blue mini/micro LED.  Sanan most likely would order G4 for GaAs LED given that G4 is the tool of choice.  

 

431 Postings, 5366 Tage fel216Infineon CMD today. Raise capex by 50%!

 
  
    
1
05.10.21 08:33
Morning all,

The Infineon CMd is a MUST WATCH event today for us. A special section on GAN and SIC. It starts in 6hrs and is available via the website. I will go through the presentation as it comes online.

Key highlight already: they raise their capex budget for next year by 50% to 2.4bn, from 1.6bn!

Given their ambition in SIC let?s hope a lot of that budget goes towards Aixtron ;)

Regards!
Fel  

431 Postings, 5366 Tage fel216IFX on SIC and GAN

 
  
    
3
05.10.21 15:53
In todays CMD Infineon detailed that they generated ca. 200m $ in revenue from SIC products in the past FY, a +100% increase from year 2020. They expect 90% growth in the next fiscal year (started on 01.10.) and see the total market in 2025 (termed mid-20s) at 1bn $ sales with IFX having 30% market share. They say the growth this year is only limited by production capacity !

On GAN they quote "market forecasts" showing a market size from 47m USD in 2020 increasing to 801m in 2025, so 76% CAGR.
Focus applications are among others ( i cant read all): Chargers, 5G, wireless charging and servers/datacenters
Emerging applications in GAN: Solar, EV charging, white goods (e.g. washing machines etc).

So to me this sounds like broader applications than only fast charging which is often pointed to by Aixtron.

Will add links when the presentation is online.

 

878 Postings, 1600 Tage CWL1MOCVD Digestion

 
  
    
4
19.10.21 16:47
There have been fears that the GaN power segment is pausing to digest the newly installed MOCVD capacities.

Yesterday's analyst downgrade is probably rooted from that thinking. Sometimes people try to be smart, or too smart, to get ahead of the others.  I think the analyst is being too smart.  I have not read his report so I cannot judge what quantitative analysis and any detailed market survey he has done.  If it is based on his gut feeling, or just fear, then I question the rationale.

There was a report out two days ago saying TSMC has 20 MOCVD in 2021 and planning to add another 10 in 2022. That is a 50% increase of TSMC's capacity. We know TSMC targets the GaN-on-Si mainly to supply NAVITAS and other players of course.  If we use TSMC as a market gauge, then certainly it is not slowing down.

For any company that wants to gain in the Generation 3 compound semiconductors, CAPACITY is the king. If you don't have installed capacity to meet the demands coming, then forget about it. That applies to mini LED, VCSSELS, GaN, and SiC of course. Do you think they would pause at this stage?  

5052 Postings, 3034 Tage dlg.ASML

 
  
    
20.10.21 09:04
Many thanks for your thoughts, CWL - as usual very interesting and sounds plausible. Unfortunately, I haven?t seen the Oddo note, thus cannot confirm your ?gut feeling? assumption.

Though not directly comparable, ASML just released a EUR 6.2bn booking number per 30 Sep (guidants.com mentions that consensus stood at EUR 4.2bn, not sure whether this was a typo).

"The demand continues to be high. The ongoing digital transformation and current chip shortage fuel the need to increase our capacity to meet the current and expected future demand for Memory and for all Logic nodes.
Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/asml-reports-5-2-billion-050000960.html  

878 Postings, 1600 Tage CWL1TSMC MOCVD

 
  
    
4
20.10.21 15:09
"TSMC currently has nearly 20 MOCVD organic vapor phase layer machines into GaN mass production, and it is expected to add another 10 equipment to expand production next year"

https://tw.stock.yahoo.com/news/...D%E5%82%99%E6%88%B0-234733273.html

 

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