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Aixtron purpose of this thread

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eröffnet am: 10.01.20 16:19 von: baggo-mh Anzahl Beiträge: 1275
neuester Beitrag: 24.05.22 13:08 von: BigGeld Leser gesamt: 260179
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1227 Postings, 4451 Tage baggo-mhAixtron purpose of this thread

 
  
    
14
10.01.20 16:19

For the time being this forum is closed to keep users that do not contribute essential news around the stock, the market opportunity or messages related to it out.

Please be friendly to eachother and keep political discussions out.

Thank you
 laugthingcool baggo-mh

 
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1249 Postings ausgeblendet.

924 Postings, 1812 Tage CWL1How many G5's?

 
  
    
16.03.22 16:28
In the Nov. 2021 investors day, Wolfspeed says it would establish the capacity of 167k sq. ft of SiC substrates in 2022 and grow to 242k sq. ft in 2024. Slide 102:

https://assets.wolfspeed.com/uploads/2021/11/...2021_presentation.pdf

If all the substrates calculated as 6" equivalent wafers are to be deposited by G5 for epitaxial layer, that would require 100-150 G5's in 2022 and 200-250 G5's in 2024.

In post #1223 I stated that the world might need ~500 G5-equivalent's for EV's by 2025.  Wolfspeed's production plan is consistent with that estimate.

That would mean a TAM (Total Addressable Market) of 1B euros just for the SiC epi tools.  

924 Postings, 1812 Tage CWL1Advent of G6

 
  
    
2
16.03.22 17:35
The tool sold to Wolfspeed can load 6x200mm.  So it is a next generation G6 tool with a 20% increase in capacity from the 5 x 200mm G5.  Likewise, the new G6 can load 10x150mm wafers from the "old" 8 x 150mm G5.  Aixtron would commend higher prices and leave the competitors further behind.

In the 2021 annual report letter to shareholders, Felix hinted the G6 and wrote:

In our core business of technologies for compound semiconductors, we continue to invest
significantly in research and development to completely renew our equipment portfolio. Prototypes of next-generation tools are already being tested by individual customers and are
achieving very good results which often also results in follow-up orders. Through significant
differentiation, we will maintain our strong market position in the future - and expand it even
further in some segments.  

924 Postings, 1812 Tage CWL1Sanan Mini/Micro LED Expansion

 
  
    
3
29.03.22 16:06
Annual capacity of 750,000 GaAs epi wafers (4") translates to about 40 G4's.  Aixtron has had a dominating position at Sanan in terms of G4 for red LED.  Red microLED is 1/3 of the RGB microLED.  Assuming the GaAs wafers are all for microLED, if Aixtron's G5 or G6 wins the blue microLEDs, the total MOCVD's needed could be 3x40=120. For 2-2.5m Eur per machine, this would mean that the total cost of MOCVD would be 250-300m Eur or ~25% of the Sanan's 1.1 B Eur total investment which seems right.

https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20220325PD201.html?chid=13

Sanan to invest in mini/microLED
Staff reporter, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES
Friday 25 March

The largest China-based LED epitaxial wafer and chip maker Sanan Optoelectronics will invest up to CNY7.9 billion (US$1.24 billion) to set up production capacity for miniLED and microLED chips at its production base in central China, according to industry sources.

The annual production capacity to be set up consists of 1.61 million GaN-based mini/microLED epitaxial wafers, 750,000 GaAs-based epitaxial wafers and 84,000 miniLED backlight units (BLU) for 4K display, the sources said.

Sanan has become a supplier of miniLED backlighting applications for Apple, Samsung Electronics and TCL, the sources noted.

For microLED R&D, Sanan has established a joint venture with China-based OLED panel maker Visionox Technology and another with China-based LCD panel maker China Star Optoelectronics Technology (CSOT), the sources indicated.

China-based EMS provider Wingtech Technology, by virtue of manufacturing automotive semiconductor components for many years, has stepped into development and production of min LED-backlit LCD panels and microLED panels for automotive displays, the sources said.

 

924 Postings, 1812 Tage CWL1WIM Semiconductor Warned

 
  
    
30.03.22 16:50
WIM just warned that its Q1 capacity utilization rate is below expectation mainly due to weakness in PA (GaAs) for 5G phones.  

924 Postings, 1812 Tage CWL1Some PA weakness

 
  
    
31.03.22 17:41
5G PA foundry capacity utilization falls on sluggish China demand
Julian Ho, Taipei; Willis Ke, DIGITIMES
Wednesday 30 March 2022

Handset-use power amplifier (PA) inventory adjustments at Chinese vendors will last into the second quarter of the year with demand showing no signs of recovery, driving down GaAs-based PA capacity utilization rates at Taiwan foundries including Win Semiconductor...
-----------------------

This could be the reason that analysts have adjusted down Aixtron's Q3 rev. by ~ 10m.    

522 Postings, 5578 Tage fel216Spain plans ? 11bn Semi investment

 
  
    
3
04.04.22 11:49
So after the US and China, European seems to be (slowly) entering the race to establish Semiconductor capacity. No doubt this should be positive for the equipment makers like Aixtron..

I cannot copy the Article from Bloomberg for some reason, but highlights are:
- Spain plans to invest ? 11bn to develop microchips and semiconductors as part of strategic projects to overahaul its economy the Prime Minister said.
- The project will be approved by the cabinet soon.
- The EU aims to become a key semi manufacturer with goal of producing 20% of the worlds chip supply by 2030.
- The European comission also freed up public funding with a ? 45bn Chip Act last month.
- Germany is looking to grant Intel ? 5bn in public funding for its ? 17bn semi plant.


 

522 Postings, 5578 Tage fel216AMS Osram announces ? 800m MicroLED investment

 
  
    
4
07.04.22 10:06
Hi everybody,

AMS Osram held its capital market yesterday announcing weakish revenue growth over the next years (e.g. 6% p.a.) but strongly accelerating growth after 2025 or 2026 I think.
More importantly for us, they also announced a new ? 800m capex program, amongst others in MicroLed in their plant in Kulim.

This should go directly into Aixtrons pockets, given their leading positions in MicroLed and supports the comments from Aixtron CEOs in the last conf call regarding microLed accelerating.

Here are the links to press release and detailed presentation:
https://ams-osram.com/news/press-releases/CMD_2022
https://ams-osram.com/documents/4390887/7083369/...07?t=1649169485602

Some Highlights from the press release:

Showcasing the group?s strong technology position in key growth applications including advanced dynamic automotive lighting, microLED display technology, optical solutions for AR/VR, automotive sensing, and horticulture LED lighting, among others;
Presenting the group?s future industrial footprint: Next to a range of footprint consolidation steps, ams OSRAM will build a new 8? LED front-end facility alongside its existing LED fab in Kulim, Malaysia, adding significant capacity to support expected growth in advanced LED technologies and MicroLED. The new facility investment is expected to amount to up to approx. EUR 800 million over the next 18-24 months.

Regards,
Fel  

5439 Postings, 3246 Tage dlg.fel

 
  
    
1
07.04.22 20:02
Thanks for your post - wanted to post the same when I saw AMS? CMD slides.

Isn?t Osram rather linked to Veeco or do I mix up things here?

https://www.veeco.com/company/news/...drive-next-generation-products/  

522 Postings, 5578 Tage fel216microLED @Osram

 
  
    
1
11.04.22 09:07
Hi DLG,

I think you are right, traditionally for MOVCD Equipment Osram also (or heavily)  relied on Veeco. However with regards to MicroLED I think Aixtron is lightyears ahead.. so if Osram wants to go for MicroLed, it has to go with Aixtron. Same goes for SiC by the way.

So I think good chances that we will see Aixtron equipment in Kulim!

Regards,
Fel
 

522 Postings, 5578 Tage fel216BNP Paribas makes Aixtron +5% today

 
  
    
2
11.04.22 09:12
BNP shares the read-x from Osram to Aixtron it seems...

Aixtron shares gain as much as 6.5%. The stock is raised to
outperform from neutral at Exane BNP Paribas, with the broker
hiking its PT by 50% to EU30, on opportunity for the
semiconductor-equipment firm from the growth of MicroLED
displays.
* MicroLED ?on the cusp of adoption? and is ?intense user? of
Aixtron tools, analysts David O?Connor and Jerome Ramel write
** See production ramp-up of MicroLED from 4Q22, estimating
first smartwatch product in 2024
** Bullish view underpinned by strengthening positions in Power
unit, with demand in GaN wafer end-markets to remain strong
* NOTE: Aixtron now has 8 buy ratings, 3 holds and zero sells
among analysts tracked by Bloomberg
 

92 Postings, 852 Tage joss.beaumontDZ-Bank meint:

 
  
    
14.04.22 18:00

https://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/...-chips-und-leds-11244175

CWL1, fel216 und dlg: Vielen Dank für eure fundamental untermauerten sowie sehr lesenswerten Beiträge! Eure Informationen bringen einen echten Mehrwert.

Allen Autoren sonnige und erholsame Osterfeiertage. Und nicht die Eier vom letzten Jahr verspeisen....die könnten schwer im Magen liegen....

à plus

Joss



 

522 Postings, 5578 Tage fel216Strong rallye today

 
  
    
2
29.04.22 09:51
Hi all,

a very nice and strong rallye in Aixtron shares today. In my view driven by the upgrade from Jefferies lifting their target price to 35? from 18?. Interestingly the analyst previously worked at another bank (I think Pareto or so) and moved to Jefferies in Q4-21. There she initially started coverage with a hold and now obviously turned much more bullish. In her previous role at Pareto she was always already a big Aixtron bull.

So great to see!

I am very bullish on margins for this year given EUR/USD move, the lack of restructuring costs in H1 from APEVA and better machine mix. Lets see if we get a slight increase in guidance with Q1 already.

All the best!
Fel


https://www.finanznachrichten.de/...-buy-ziel-fast-verdoppelt-016.htm  

924 Postings, 1812 Tage CWL1Short Term vs Long term

 
  
    
2
29.04.22 13:58
It is great to see the price jump. However, I am a bit concerned about the short term.  In post #1240 on 2/24, I adjusted down the Q1 rev. to 80m and the Q2 rev. to 100m.  At that time the analysts were predicting Q1 rev. of 91m and q2 110m. In the latest analysts forecast the Q1 rev. is now at 81.1m and Q2 to 98.8m  So the rev. forecasts by the analysts have come down as predicted.  

Short term, China is in trouble partly due to Covid.  I also mentioned the GaAs (PA, phones) side could be weak.  Aixtron may be affected.  I hope I am wrong.  Does the Jefferies analyst know something?  

522 Postings, 5578 Tage fel216Jefferies note

 
  
    
3
29.04.22 15:52
Here is the write up from the Jefferies upgrade today

The main point to highlight from our note is that our new forecast of 30% revenue growth in 2023 is by far the highest across our coverage.

You?ll have heard our views that the wider semiconductor sector is heading into a downcycle which could result in steep cuts to orders and earnings over the next 12-18 months.  In light of all that, we expect an average revenue growth rate of 8% for 2023 across our coverage, with the risk clearly to the downside given the current environment of weakening demand and rising inventories - In that context, our 30% forecast for Aixtron makes this company a clear outperformer in the sector over the next couple of years.

And not only that, but we actually think our forecasts are conservative - That all put us significantly ahead of consensus: our 2023 and 2024 earnings estimates are 58% and 48% ahead



Why are we so confident on Aixtron?

We see three key pillars of growth for this company over the next few years: MicroLED, Silicon Carbide and Gallium Nitride:

MicroLED - we think this could go on to become the company?s largest revenue driver by far - Most important point to highlight here is that once it reaches commercialisation, MicroLED screens are going to be everywhere -  whether it?s in wearable devices, smartphones, laptops, TVs, AR/VR headsets

In other words this will be a huge market ? and Aixtron are very well placed with a 100% share on the equipment side. Also important is the fact that we think Aixtron have got Apple as a customer here - who they?re going to start shipping to in commercial volumes from Q4 of this year - Ahead of what we think will be a microLED-based Apple Watch launched in H2 2024.



If that Apple Watch launch goes well, then clearly there?s a possibility that Apple release a MicroLED iPhone - And we think that could mean an order 10x the size of the one they?ve got for the Apple Watch. So adding it all together, we think MicroLED could be a EUR 2 billion opportunity for Aixtron from Apple alone, and that?s not accounting for iPads, Android smartphones and TVs.



On Silicon Carbide, we think this side of the business is finally inflecting.

Aixtron have said they?re now working with TWO major customers here ? we think the second is On Semi in the US. They have said that they?re doubling their Silicon Carbide capacity both this year and next, to get to a run rate of $1bn revenues by 2023, which would put them on a par with STMicro

So if we?re right and Aixtron are supplying equipment to them, clearly they?re in a very good spot to grow their share of this market over the next 12-24 months as that customer ramps.



Finally, on Gallium Nitride ? this is another high growth market, we think it?s growing at about 80%, where Aixtron again have a 100% share.

In other words every GaN chipmaker is their customer - To put that growth potential a different way ? Infineon said that their GaN revenues in 2021 were EUR 5m. but their bookings are 1 billion ? so clearly huge amount of demand for this technology



Why is this stock cheap?

Shares are trading on 24x 2023 EPS, which is about 15% below their long-term average. We think consensus will get upgraded through the year, particularly as and when management raise FY guidance which they typically start doing from around Q2, and that together with resilient multiples is where we think a good amount of share price upside could come from over the next 12 months.  Summary: we?re upgrading Aixtron today, we think the company will out-grow the rest of our coverage over the next 24 months, we?re significantly ahead of consensus, and we see upside to our forecasts.


 

522 Postings, 5578 Tage fel216Nomura initiates coverage with 34? price target

 
  
    
4
03.05.22 11:35
Interesting, the Japanese Investment Bank (comparable to Deutsche Bank from Japan) initiated coverage of Aixtron today with ? 34 price target. The interesting part is that a) they care about a German small/midcap name - the analyst would only do that if the thinks the stock is "worth it"; b) shows that international interest in Aixtron is rising. He says that Aixtron is the key beneficiary of the SiC/Gan Trend and sees order intake for the next quarters in a range of 100-150m per quarter - implying solid demand!

So after Jefferies with ? 34 or 35 price target, this is the next broker applying this target. He uses a price/sales multiple as valuation metric, applying 6x to his ca. ? 600m in sales in 2023 (or 2024).

While the stock may remain volatile, we will still have a lot of fun with it over the next 2-3 years, and the fundamental story remains well in tact!

Regards!
Fel  

522 Postings, 5578 Tage fel216Q1 results

 
  
    
1
05.05.22 11:04
Hi all,

I am surprised we have no comment on the Q1 results yet? Numbers were very strong in my view, with strong orders, solid sales and resulting EBIT Margin. Guidance unchanged. Conf call today at 3pm CET.
Stock is a bit weaker (despite strength in Nasdaq yesterday) which I attribute to profit taking after a strong YTD Outperformance with the stock ca. +30% (incl. todays move).

From a top-down view I think they will likely narrow guidance with Q2 and maybe upgrade with Q3 but lets see.. at least that is the pattern we have seen over the last years. Meaning that Q2 results should be another positive catalyst.

I think the conf call will confirm that demand is coming from all end-markets with more details on SIC/GAN and maybe MicroLED, lets see. I will clearly listen to margin comments given supply chain difficulties overall and the benefit from EUR/USD at 1.06 vs. guidance based on 1.20 (!!), should be a clear margin tailwind.

Looking at the Q1 presentation actually shows quite obviously that revenue guidance needs to be upgraded soon: They guide for sales of 450-500m, mid-point 475m. Q1 sales 88m, they estimate Q2-4 service sales of 62m and already have a backlog to be delivered in 2022 of 200m. In Sum 350m. So to reach the mid-point of the guidance they only need 125m in orders shippable in 2022, with 3-6 months lead-time these 125m in orders can also come until early/mid Q3, if they speed up in the production.
Supports my optimism that Q2 will see a narrowing of the range (towards upper half) for sales and consequently a bit of an upgrade for EBIT margins as well.

Regards!
Fel  

3642 Postings, 1587 Tage Der Paretosind halt alle sprachlos von der fetten Rutsche...

 
  
    
05.05.22 13:06
Fel

ganz so überschwänglich habe ich die Zahlen jetzt nicht aufgenommen.
Namentlich den Auftragseingang!  

522 Postings, 5578 Tage fel216Conf call

 
  
    
2
05.05.22 15:22
Just from the conf call right now...

        a.§We expect a very clear acceleration of the orders throughout the year.
        b.§Expect a stronger Q2 in terms of order intake vs. Q1.

I think this is very bullish, in particular if you compare this to the broader industrial sector in Europe/Germany. No issues here from supply chains, no cost hickups, no delays etc.
But that is just my view..  

1227 Postings, 4451 Tage baggo-mhConf. call

 
  
    
3
06.05.22 10:56

Hi all,
I only had time to listen into the call recording today.

let me start with a general observation. Management seems very confident about reaching guidance and none of the questions actually seemed to surprise them - except the one on depreciation.

A few notes from my side:
1.) ?All manufacturing is outsourced? that goes imho for the parts and the personnel
2.) 30 to 40% of the revenue is generated in USD. Budget rate is 1,2 resulting in a Tailwind in Q1 of 2 to 3 % gross margin.
3.) Lead time now 9 ? 12 months

GAN Power
-Spans from 100V to 600V, incl. white goods and server farms
-market penetration is 5% remainder is still silicon
-biggest order intake in Q1
-GAN and SiC Power account for > 50% of Order intake

SiC Power
Wolfspeed discussing build of a second factory
?couple of big customers but also well financially equipped start-ups that order?
Management is convinced to gain more customers

MicroLED
The tools will cover all 3 colors which essentially means 3 products. Red, yellow and blue.
orders for the 2023/2024 ramp expected in 2022 and 2023.
one customer with concrete plans
others wanting to make reservations

New tools under development for all major applications that will result in advantageous for the customer in terms of productivity & uniformity and a better margin for Aixtron.

Ich gebe kein Stück aus der Hand, den ich kann mir ?30 zum Jahresende durchaus gut vorstellen.

Gruß
laugthingcool baggo-mh

 

99 Postings, 1001 Tage BigGeldGekauft!!

 
  
    
11.05.22 13:04
Link! hat aktien von Aixtron am 5.5.2022 gekauft, das ist ein gutes Zeichen. Ich bleibe am Ball  

1227 Postings, 4451 Tage baggo-mhhttps://www.dgap.de/dgap/News/directors_dealings/k

 
  
    
11.05.22 13:06
und hier der Link zum Link Kauf von 3 K Aixtron  

522 Postings, 5578 Tage fel216STM Investor Day: SIC, SIC & GAN

 
  
    
1
13.05.22 12:24
Hi all,

ST Micro held an investor day this week. Strong strong strong focus on SIC (targets accelerated) and GAN. I didnt listen but scrolled through the slides.
Confirms that Aixtron is witnessing the ramp-up in volume orders this year and next.

Check out the slides yourselves and please add quaified comments. But I think the message is clear: Automotive and Industrial electrification are the biggest drivers for STM over the next 2-3 years and this is driven by SIC and GAN roll-out and expansion.
Various details and the expansion plans in the slides (incl. 300mm manufacturing etc).

100% in-line with Aixtron Management comments in the Q1 call.

Links:
https://cmd.st.com/presentation
https://cmd.st.com/static-files/d298eedd-f859-401c-94e6-aa97d3ff357e
https://cmd.st.com/static-files/cfae6415-e89b-4984-8638-666a23ec234e
https://cmd.st.com/static-files/a028e35e-1f63-45d1-a0eb-c3929fe4374b

Regards!
Fel  

924 Postings, 1812 Tage CWL1STM

 
  
    
14.05.22 16:13
Slide 10 of the fourth link shows a picture of Aixtron's G5.  

99 Postings, 1001 Tage BigGeldGespannt auf Morgen !!

 
  
    
24.05.22 13:08
Ich bin mir ein bisschen unsicher, ob die Aixtron nach der Dividenausschüttung oben bleib. Kann mich einer in Ruhe halten???
 

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