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Rebound oder nicht?

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neuester Beitrag: 01.10.20 17:40
eröffnet am: 18.09.08 18:43 von: Superflach Anzahl Beiträge: 62
neuester Beitrag: 01.10.20 17:40 von: fws Leser gesamt: 18919
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1558 Postings, 5559 Tage SuperflachRebound oder nicht?

18.09.08 18:43
Aktie fällt gerade sehr stark und keiner weiß genau warum?

Bin in den USA mal zu 4,75 Dollar rein.

Handel in D kaum also US ordern.  

1558 Postings, 5559 Tage SuperflachBisheriger Tageschart

18.09.08 18:55
Angehängte Grafik:
p.gif (verkleinert auf 63%) vergrößern

4951 Postings, 4854 Tage 0815ax...could be next to be hurt by problems in the...

18.09.08 18:55^GNW

Shares of insurer Genworth fall on mortgage worries
Date : 09/18/2008 @ 12:31PM
Source : TFN
Stock : Genworth Financial I (GNW)
Quote : 5.5508  -4.2892 (-43.59%) @ 12:33PM

Shares of insurer Genworth fall on mortgage worries

       NEW YORK, Sept 18 (Reuters) - Shares of Genworth Financial fell 40 percent
on Thursday as investors grew concerned the mortgage insurer could be next to be
hurt by problems in the nation's housing market.
      Genworth shares dropped to $5.83, plunging past a 52-week low.
      "We think the shares are being punished because like AIG, Genworth is an
insurer with above-average exposure to the U.S. housing market," said Merrill
Lynch analyst Edward Spehar in a research note.
      However, Spehar downplayed those concerns, saying Genworth did not have a
liquidity issue, and was not expected to need to raise capital.
      AIG's large mortgage losses left it on the verge of collapse, forcing it
to agree to a $85 billion bailout from the U.S. government on Tuesday.
   (Reporting by Lilla Zuill; Editing by Brian Moss) Keywords: GENWORTH/SHARES    
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The copying, republication or redistribution of Thomson Financial News Content,
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written consent of Thomson Financial News.
*amM - keine Kaufempfehlung

Eröffnunsspiel 3.Liga: RWE-SGD  0:1
DFB-Pokal 1.Runde '08: RWE-Bayern München  3:4
!! RWE-Jxxa  2:1

730 Postings, 5480 Tage OttomanRosendahlDie nächste Insolvenz

18.09.08 19:10

1558 Postings, 5559 Tage SuperflachThreaderöffnung bei 4,60 Dollar

18.09.08 20:33
Jetzt sinds 7 Dollar.

Also wer außer mir hat denn hier noch Geld verdient.

Die Nörgler waren ja schnell wieder da.

Schnelle 5000 Euro GEwinn am Donnerstag ist OK.

Jetzt schaut Euch für die nächsten Tage WM an denn dort kommt ein BUYOUT und das nicht unter 6 Dollar meiner Meinung nach.Aktuell 2,36 Dollar.  

4951 Postings, 4854 Tage 0815axund da war sie wieder - die WERBUNG anderer Aktien

18.09.08 20:36
*amM - keine Kaufempfehlung

Eröffnunsspiel 3.Liga: RWE-SGD  0:1
DFB-Pokal 1.Runde '08: RWE-Bayern München  3:4
!! RWE-Jxxa  2:1

1558 Postings, 5559 Tage Superflach@0815ax

18.09.08 21:29
Tja Du wirbst mit jedem Posting von Dir für deine Aktie und zwar mit deinem beschissenen Anhang.Nur sind die Aktie die Du im Anhang empfiehlst sind leider nicht gut momentan also schlechte Werbung auch wenn Du sagst das Du long bist.

Ich erwähne nur Aktie und jeder kann daraus machen was er oder Sie will.

Ach ja und hier der aktuelle Tageschart bisher:


1558 Postings, 5559 Tage Superflach...

18.09.08 21:29
Angehängte Grafik:
p.gif (verkleinert auf 63%) vergrößern

6633 Postings, 4941 Tage swedenWM ?

18.09.08 21:33
findet die nicht erst in 2 Jahren statt oder habe ich was verpasst ;-)

Glückwunsch zu deinem Gewinn, aber lass den Thread jetzt sterben, denn du bist raus und
hast Gewinne gemacht, also lass es gut sein.  

130 Postings, 4838 Tage vidaRT 3,40

06.05.09 07:46
GNW,FORTRES, BKUNA,COLUBMBIA BANCORP,AMBAC... sehr,sehr gefragt, warum weil hat US Finanzminister
neues Bonusprogram vorgelgt.  

70 Postings, 3944 Tage xteriorhoch mit dir!!

29.07.10 19:39

 na komm schon du doofer Chart, den Kurs von 2006 solltest du wieder anstreben 


4581 Postings, 3307 Tage FD2012Genworth/ noch zurück

06.10.12 13:20

0815ax: Immer noch bei den Versicherern zurück; ist einzige Position in meinem Vers.-Depot, die man bei mir als lahm bezeichnen muss! Assurant, Hartford, Lincoln Nat., alles soweit o.K. Jetzt ausmisten? 


54 Postings, 3246 Tage IvoREin wenig warten zahlt sich glaub ich aus

25.10.12 21:42

Ich würde hier nicht ausmisten, der rebound wird mit einer größeren Wahrscheinlichkeit kommen als ein Fall nach unten.

Hier sind langfristig erfolgreiche Investoren investiert (z.B.: Seth Klarman)

100% Upside (in einem Jahr) ist denke ich gegeben mehr (200-300%) ist  längerfristig auch möglich.



4581 Postings, 3307 Tage FD2012Genworth Fin.

16.01.13 17:24

IvoR: Genworth heute Treiber mit mehr als 11% Kursgewinn in USA / soeben auf CNBC gesehen; jetzt mehr als 9,00 $. Danke, habe das Papier behalten und nicht verkauft. Gehört zu den Tagessiegern heute! Noch mehr Potential?  Bleibst Du bei Deinen 200% Plus?


5 Postings, 1769 Tage ultraschall

29.12.16 21:05
Genworth (NYSE:GNW) is a mortgage and long-term care insurance company. I have traded in and out of this stock over the past several years as it has been volatile and offered investors many buying and selling opportunities. This company has a prosperous mortgage insurance business, but the long-term care division has been challenging, and there have been some charges taken in order to boost reserves. In October, Genworth's shares were trading for around $5.20, but then a buyout offer was announced by China Oceanwide (OTC:HHRBF) for $5.43 per share in cash. Self-made multi-billionaire Lu Zhiqiang is the chairman of China Oceanwide, and he has made investments in financial and insurance stocks in the past. His net worth is estimated to be $4.7 billion, which is significantly more than Genworth's total market capitalization of just around $2 billion.
I believe many investors are asking themselves why did Genworth's shares drop after getting a buyout offer since a takeover deal would normally send a stock soaring. I think there are a number of reasons for this. I don't think there is anything wrong with this deal as long as it gets regulatory approval. China Oceanwide and its chairman seem to be well financed and savvy buyers of financial assets. I think the announcement of the deal at $5.43 per share "capped" the potential upside for investors, and that was a disappointment for many shareholders. After all, if Genworth was trading at $5.20 per share just before the deal, then it makes sense to sell the stock because the most you might get is another 23 cents or just around 4% upside, and that is only if you patiently wait for months and if the deal goes through. The lack of a real takeover premium also created a situation whereby it made sense for short sellers to step into this stock and that created selling pressure as well.
Most takeover deals offer a significant premium and yet still trade for a discount to the deal price just in case the deal fails to go through. However, in this case, there was really no premium and therefore the market price of Genworth's stock was quickly adjusted downward in order to provide a typical discount in the event a deal does not go through. Here is an example of another deal which has some similarities. In October 2015, Walgreens Boots Alliance (NASDAQ:WBA) announced a deal to buy Rite Aid (NYSE:RAD) for $9 per share. When that news came out, Rite Aid's shares dropped about 8% to just around $7.97 even though the buyout price was significantly higher. Clearly, some investors believed there could be some antitrust or other regulatory issues with this deal and therefore wanted some type of "risk-premium" or discount to be built into the shares in the event the deal was not approved. Now that deal approval appears to be more likely, Rite Aid's shares are trading at about $8.40 per share. I believe the deal to buy Genworth has a strong chance of going through, and that when updates are announced and regulatory hurdles are cleared, the current discount (to the buyout price of $5.43 per share) of about 35% in Genworth shares will shrink.

If the deal goes through, then Genworth's shares could rise by about 35%, but I also believe that if the deal falls through, the shares will rise as well. That is because investors will again have more potential upside if they buy Genworth's shares. Right now, tax loss selling and some uncertainty as to whether the deal will go though are holding the stock back. Here is how I see it. If the deal goes through, that will bring about the certainty of shareholders receiving $5.43 per share in cash, and if the deal collapses, it will create the certainty of knowing Genworth can benefit from rising rates and the stock no longer has a cap on it.
I recently started buying Genworth shares again because at just $4 per share, I see a "win-win" situation for shareholders. If the deal goes through, I will see gains of about 35%, and if it does not go through, I could see even bigger gains especially in the long run, as Genworth appears to have probably better options to create shareholder value. For example, the rising interest rate environment has sent many financial stocks soaring recently, but this deal seems to have capped it for Genworth. Since the election, other mortgage insurance stocks like Radian Group (NYSE:RDN) have surged about 50%, and MGIC's (NYSE:MTG) shares are up about 30%. Based on recent statements from the Federal Reserve, many analysts now believe we could see four rate hikes in 2017 and 3.5% yields on 10-Year Treasury bonds. That rate environment would be hugely beneficial for Genworth, and yet none of this appears to be priced in as it has been left out of the major rally in financial stocks due to the deal capping the upside at $5.43 per share.
Besides the fact that the end of tax loss selling could help push Genworth's shares higher, here are a couple of other positives to consider. Genworth Australia (GMA.AX) and Genworth Canada (MIC.TO) are trading near 52-week highs right now. These are very valuable and liquid assets, and Genworth owns stakes of about 50% in each of these publicly-traded companies. Genworth Australia has a current market cap of about $1.62 billion, and Genworth Canada has a market cap of $3.14 billion. That means Genworth's stakes in these companies are valued at about $2.4 billion, which is actually more than the current market cap of the company itself, which is about $2 billion. That shows a lot of potential value that could eventually be unlocked, especially if GNW succeeds in turning the long-term care division into the consistently profitable business that it once was. Genworth has been asking for and receiving major policy premium increases, and that, combined with mortality rates, should get this division back on track.

According to an RBC Capital Markets analyst, Genworth is a "Trump stock" as it should benefit from lower corporate taxes and rising rates. When searching for "Trump" stocks, the analyst looked for companies with a low price-to-earnings multiple, a domestic orientation, superior operating leverage, high corporate taxes, and greater volatility. The list of "Trump" stocks has 40 small- and mid-cap stocks in it. According to, there are nearly 15 million shares short, and with an average trading volume of about 5 million shares traded daily, this represents about three days worth of trading volume. This is not enough to cause a short squeeze, but it could add to the potential buying pressure in early 2017, as tax loss selling ends and as investors look for solid value in the New Year.
I think Genworth could get more for its shareholders without the deal, but let's assume it goes through, in which case, shareholders get $5.43 per share in cash. This would be a gain of roughly 35%. That is too large of a discount, especially for a stock that could be better off if the deal is not completed. Because of this and the other positive factors surrounding this stock, like rising rates and the potential for significant corporate tax cuts and deregulation by a Trump Administration, I believe the discount to the deal offer of $5.43 per share will narrow significantly. I think the combination of these factors along with the end of tax loss selling and some short covering will push Genworth's shares back above $4.50 in January, which offers investors a potential gain of about 10% in just a short time, and yet, even at about $4.50, still would offer additional upside of more than 20%, if the buyout deal goes through.  

8984 Postings, 5731 Tage pacorubiobut this text is not from you?

17.01.17 14:42
am i am right?....  

8984 Postings, 5731 Tage pacorubioso bitte schön

24.01.17 17:11
weiter runter die 3 müssen nach unten durchbrochen werden....

8984 Postings, 5731 Tage pacorubioso bin drin

09.02.17 17:48
erste Posi aufgebaut wer weiss ob es noch fällt  

8984 Postings, 5731 Tage pacorubionochmal

14.02.17 17:19
gestern minimal aufgestockt zu spät rein auf long minimum 12-18 Euro  

1037 Postings, 1517 Tage CheckpointCharlieÄhm ... Du weißt schon was hier gerade abgeht?

14.02.17 20:43
Wie begründest Du denn 12-18?. Glaubst Du die bleiben noch solange als eigenständiger Wert notiert?  

8984 Postings, 5731 Tage pacorubiohab mich schon belesen

14.02.17 23:21
12-18 euro ist eher auch als scherz zu verstehen aber ein euro sehe ich kurzfristig schon.....
12-18 wenn sie zu einer radian group mutiert.......  

1037 Postings, 1517 Tage CheckpointCharliemir reichen eigentlich

15.02.17 12:25
die derzeitigen Aussichten. Ziemlich sichere ~30%. Am 7.3 ist die HV und der Beschluss meiner Meinung nach alleine durch den aktuellen Kurs bedingt Formsache. Entsprechende Empfehlung ist auch da. Gestern kam von meinem Broker ein fettes Paket aus den USA, indem auch nochmals alles im Detail dargestellt ist, sauber zusammen gefaßt auf Seite 1.
Ich sehe auch keinen Grund, warum der Käufer nach der Vorbereitungszeit und bei der vereinbarten Strafzahlung von seinem Angebot Abstand nehmen sollte.

8984 Postings, 5731 Tage pacorubiound ich dachte ich bin hier einer der einzigen

15.02.17 12:50
im ariva forum der gnw auf´m zettel hat....
dann fühle ich mich auch nicht mehr so alleine;-).....  

8984 Postings, 5731 Tage pacorubiodas was du schreibst

15.02.17 12:51
sind auch meine beweggründe gewesen hier einzusteigen....

8984 Postings, 5731 Tage pacorubioläuft

15.02.17 20:12

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