K+S - Zeichen für steigende Kurse- Behav. Finance
Trinh : K+S - Zeichen für steigende Kurse- Behav. Finance
Data from crude oil, metals and grains exchanges on Wednesday showed a drop of between 2 and 17 percent in futures contracts that have not yet been exercised, expired, or fulfilled by delivery at the end of a trading day compared with a month ago. [ID:nN07518730]
A softer outlook for raw materials -- plus a stronger dollar from a halt in U.S. rate cuts -- has also led to more investors going short, or bearish, on commodities than those going long, or bullish, analysts said.
"It is a combination of shorts and liquidations," said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch & Associates, an oil trading advisory in Galena, Illinois.
Open interest in crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange stood at around 1.22 million contracts as of July 29 -- down nearly 6 percent from July 1, and off 9 percent from mid-July when the market traded near record highs, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
With crude prices down 20 percent since a July 11 record high of $147.27 a barrel, "a lot of the speculators will tend to take profits and move to the sidelines," Ritterbusch said.
He said this likely included institutional investors, like the big pensions funds and university endowments, that helped boost prices to all-time highs this year through passive investments in commodity indexes.
"Many of the traders that participated in the up move aren't necessarily the types to go short. They are more apt to take profits and get out of the way," Ritterbusch said.
The trend has been mirrored in other commodity markets.
Open interest in NYMEX's COMEX gold market stood at 434,024 contracts as of July 29, down 10 percent from mid-July levels.
On the Chicago Board of Trade, open interest fell 17 percent in soybeans, 7 percent in corn and 2 percent in wheat for July.
The Reuters-Jefferies CRB Index <.CRB>, one of the most popular vehicles for institutional investors in commodities, suffered its worst monthly decline in 28 years in July.
That came after the CRB saw its biggest quarterly gain in 35 years in June on the back of oil's stunning rally.
Analysts said inflationary pressure -- one of the biggest drivers for this year's commodities rally -- had been further restrained by this week's decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve not to cut rates, after extensive easing earlier in the year.
Analysts also noted the Fed's muted language on inflation in its latest policy statement, after more serious concerns on this voiced by Chairman Ben Bernanke in earlier months.
"We had seen a massive increase in open interest in commodities last August and September when we had Ben Bernanke's coming out party," said Peter Beutel, president at Cameron Hanover, a Connecticut-based oil trading advisory.
"He (Bernanke) basically said 'my favorite past-time is cutting interest rates', giving everyone a freebie on the commods market. We saw lots of refugees from stocks and bonds coming into commodities. Now these types have been getting out, largely because the dollar's been strengthening and commodities haven't been performing," Beutel said. (
Trinh : Prognose eingetroffen, Short investoren
Trinh : Info für Euch
Despite a decline in crop prices, analysts contend that global demand for potash remains strong, prices for the crop nutrient will remain at record highs, supply continues to be tight and new capacity is still a few years away.
"On a long-term view and on a fundamentals view, (I am) very comfortable with the outlook a year from now for the likes of Potash Corp and other companies like it. We think they will be generating significant earnings," said Canaccord Adams agriculture analyst Keith Carpenter.
Potash helps to improve the size of kernels, seeds and fruit and is a key crop nutrient along with nitrogen and phosphate. The bulk of the world's potash deposits are currently found in Canada, Russia, Belarus and Germany.
Potash prices have more than quadrupled within the last year and touched $1,000 a tonne last month.
Potash Corp of Saskatchewan Inc , Mosaic Co , Agrium Inc , Intrepid Potash , K+S , Silvinit , Israel Chemicals , Uralkali all enjoyed strong share-price gains in the first half of 2008, but have seen their share prices drop about 30 percent or more since peaking in mid-June.
"We don't look at this sector as a bear market, we look at it as a correction and we expected the correction," said Terence Ortslan, managing director of TSO and Associates.
A recent workers strike at three of Potash Corp's mines, which account for about 30 percent of the company's production capacity and about 5 percent of global capacity, could spur another spike in potash prices.
Furthermore, with U.S. regulators rejecting a proposal to lower the ethanol mandate for 2009, analysts expect farmers to increase their corn acreage in the coming planting season, a move that will likely boost potash demand in the United States.
VOLUMES SPUR GROWTH
Potash price increases have propelled the shares of companies in the sector this year, but the big driver in 2009 is more likely to be gains in shipment volumes.
In North America, although potash demand remains fairly steady, increased corn acreage will be a factor in spurring volume growth.
Moreover, in 2008, China managed to secure contracts for only a fraction of the potash that it has historically imported. Hence, analysts believe the Chinese will be forced to agree on next year's potash import contracts very quickly as inventory levels within the country are likely to at historic lows.
"The Chinese are not in the driver's seat here to negotiate from a point of strength, they need the volumes and they have no second choice," Ortslan said, adding that China is really in a spot.
China, the world's largest importer of the crop nutrient, was kept on a tight leash by producers this year. The country, which typically imports more than 6 million tonnes of potash a year, was able to sign contracts for only about 2 million tonnes of potash deliveries this April.
"I think next year, we are going to see a bigger bump in volumes than in prices. Any price gains next year will be more marginal and more opportunistic, rather than fundamental," Ortslan said.
But, not everyone is convinced that potash demand for the 2009 crop planting season will remain as strong given the record high potash prices.
"The thing to remember is that farmers both here and abroad have not been confronted with these extremely high potash prices. The demand destruction will be substantial, but it has not occurred yet," said one industry expert, who asked not to be named.
Lars Chettche, of Frankfurt-based Metzler Equity Research cautioned that the potash markets are seeing a kind of bubble and that current potash price levels might not be sustainable in the long run.
However, even skeptics concede that with a tight supply situation and no new major potash capacity coming on-line in the next few years, it is extremely unlikely that the price of potash could collapse in the near-term.
Experts believe that a new greenfield mine that produces about 2 million tonnes of potash could take five to seven years to set-up and would cost more than $2.5 billion.
"No matter how you look at it, the world's inventory ratios for grain are dangerously lean ... So next year, we are looking at another very strong year of fertilizer application," said Ortslan.
Byoersolany : Ausschnitt aus dem heutigen Bericht
"Der Vorstandsvorsitzende Norbert Steiner
betonte, dass sich auch künftig das knappe
Düngemitteln positiv auswirken werde.
Angesichts niedriger Lagerbestände von
Agrarprodukten werde die Landwirtschaft
versuchen müssen, für eine wachsende
Weltbevölkerung ausreichend Nahrungsund
Futtermittel sowie Kraftstoffe zu produzieren.
Dies spreche für ein weiteres
Wachstums für Kalidüngemittel, deren
Kapazitäten bestenfalls mit der Nachfrage
Schritt halten könnten. Für das laufende
Geschäftsjahr geht K+S von einem
Umsatz in der Größenordnung 5.3 bis 5.5
(3.3) Mrd. Euro und einem mit 1.4 bis 1.6
(0.29) Mrd. Euro sehr viel höheren EBIT I
aus. Der im "worst case" bei 1.51 Euro
gesehene Dollarkurs ist aktuell schon
unter diese Marke gefallen."
Das NJ-Extra taxiert den Jahresgewinn 2008 auf über 6,- ? je Aktie.
Trinh : Heute und morgen
Vorbörslich steigen die amerikanischen Titeln.
Spannend wird's aber 14:30 sein. Da kommen die Arbeitsmarktdaten!
Trinh : China schränkt Export von Düngermitteln weiter ein
The increase, which will also apply to synthetic ammonia, will be in effect from Sept. 1 until Dec. 31, while a 100 percent duty on other fertilisers will be extended for an extra two months to Dec. 31, the report said.
China, the world's largest fertiliser market, slapped an extra 100 percent duty on fertiliser exports in April, with effect to Sept. 30, lifting tariffs as high as 135 percent for some products such as urea to keep more production at home.
The duties tightened supply further in the global market.
China's exports of urea and fertiliser compounds had increased sharply at the beginning of the year, as exporters were attracted by rapidly rising international prices.
China has been grappling this year with inflation rates at the highest in more than a decade, primarily reflecting higher food costs, although annual consumer price inflation eased to 6.3 percent as of June from a peak of 8.7 percent in February.
Beijing often uses tariffs as a policy tool to discourage exports and dampen domestic prices of commodities ranging from metals to wheat flour. Tariffs are easier to administer than price controls or subsidies, and leave less room for corruption.
The chief executive of Sinofert , China's main distributor of imported fertilisers, echoed the predictions of several analysts when he said in an interview this week that China could lift urea export tariffs again.